Webinars

Increasing the Value of Test and Evaluation through Integration of Uncertainty Quantification

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Presented by Dr. Ed Kraft, SmartUQ UQ Technical Advisor
He has over 48 years of experience in testing and evaluation in both the private and public sector. He is one of the initiators and principal architects for the Air Force’s Digital Thread/Digital Twin initiative and a strong advocate for the application of Uncertainty Quantification in developing the digital authoritative truth source in support of decision making. He is a distinguished alumnus of both the University of Cincinnati and the University of Tennessee Space Institute, where he received his degrees in aerospace engineering. He is a fellow of the American Institute of Astronautics and Aeronautics (AIAA) and an Arnold Engineering Development Complex fellow.

Test and evaluation (T&E), a critical element of systems engineering, is a problem solving and knowledge accumulation process. By introducing methodologies capable of reducing and managing uncertainty, T&E’s role increases in value and progresses to becoming a critical component of the decision-making process. This webinar introduces digital engineering principles and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methodologies and their disruptive transformation of T&E from the traditional role of providing data or validating models towards the creation of knowledge for better decision making at critical milestones.

Typically, T&E’s value comes from the early identification of problems, cost avoidance, or reduction in rework, but these metrics cannot be defined or measured until after testing. Changing T&E’s value metric to the quantification and mitigation of technical uncertainty eliminates this issue. By using statistical techniques for UQ, technical uncertainty can be estimated in the development process and evaluated after testing. Technical uncertainty can be easily related to risk, and along with other parameters of interest such as cost and schedule, they can be related to stakeholder value and better support critical decisions.

This webinar will present a digital, model-based systems engineering approach to T&E enabled by uncertainty quantification. Key concepts include:

  • Validated Digital Surrogates – Integrating uncertainty quantification to elevate T&E as key to the validation of an authoritative digital surrogate truth source – the very essence of the digital engineering revolution.
  • Uncertainty Quantification - Employing digitally-captured, quantified epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to determine uncertainty reduction budgets for test designs; learning when to iterate the system design or move on to the next level of modeling or testing.
  • Digital T&E Master Plan (TEMP) – Dynamically coupling technical measures to requirements to reduce TEMP preparation time, employing model based-engineering and uncertainty quantification to develop a best value T&E campaign, and minimizing late defect discoveries.
  • Test Digital Twin – Using near-real time authoritative digital surrogates with live test article data streaming to optimize test event data acquisition and increase safety.
  • Digital Critical Decision Points – Using authoritative digital surrogate truth sources to quantify margins and uncertainties, statistically assess programmatic risks, and employ Bayesian Belief Networks to project optimum courses of action to support a near real-time discovery of notable states or state changes that call for specific program actions before a staged critical decision event can take place.